Balbir Punj  

Irrespective of what happens in Pakistan polls, it is certain that the Army and Islamic clergy will continue to call the shots in the strife-ridden country and its policy of bleeding India will remain unchanged

As Pakistan’s eastern neighbour, New Delhi cannot close its eyes to political and social developments that take place in that country. Especially, when it is on the eve of a General Election precipitated by the apex court forcing the ouster of the then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on charges of corruption with the publication of what is known as the Panama Papers which disclosed money stashed abroad by the high and the mighty.

July 25 is the deadline for the election. The interesting fact is that the leading party, Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) is facing a revolt from within. The giving of a ticket to Hamza Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s nephew, has prompted a leading PML-N leader Zaeem Qadri to challenge his own party high command by threatening to contest as an Independent candidate.

Nawaz himself has been barred by the apex court verdict from contesting. His brother and till recently Punjab Governor is expected to take over if PML-N makes it to the top. The expectation is that if it gets a fresh electoral verdict in its favour, the party, thrice the ruling party and twice ousted by the Army, will be strengthened enough to assert legitimate civilian democratic power against interference by the Army in politics and could prevail over other contenders for power, the clerics.

The main electoral contest is between PML-N and former cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, from the Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). But Imran Khan has had his reputation besmirched by his ex-wife Reham Khan though their marriage lasted for just 10 months. Her book, which she claimed was not timed for the election, however saw excerpts leaked clandestinely. The book as a whole does not flatter Imran; and his opponents are using its contents to blacken his reputation.

But Imran ‘s third marriage early this year with Bushra Maneka is also in trouble, apparently. She is described as a “respected Pir”, a faith healer. Bushra, also known as “Pinky Pir”, was married for several decades and had five children, including two married daughters. She divorced her husband, a senior customs officer, to marry Imran. Now the two newlyweds are reported to be having problems and are heading for a separation. It should be remembered that, in this context, his much publicised first marriage to a British Jewish billionaire’s daughter lasted almost a decade but was called off after an exchange of several allegations.

Last year, Imran Khan organised a Parliament shutdown which was resolved only by the Army’s intervention. That shutdown had the backing from militant clerics who are still in power in Pakistan politics. There is, in fact, an allegation that Imran’s party has a deep understanding with fundamentalist clerics.

The political outcome of all this could be that either the election will not take place or the Army might intervene as the same Supreme Court, which brought down Nawaz Sharif, is yet to give its finding on allegations against Imran Khan on “moral turpitude”. If Imran is also disqualified then the two main leaders will not be contesting and the elected party leader will be a nominee and thus lack power to withstand the two other power forces — the Army and the clerics. Either way, there is little hope for those who are looking forward to strong civilian rule and policy stability in the nuclear weapons equipped country with fundamentalist forces within Pakistan with links to similar militant fundamentalists in Afghanistan dictating policies.

That brings us back to the need for a strong and stable Government to continue for five years. Pakistan has now virtually switched from its alliance with the US and gone over to China which is giving it critical support, both politically and financially, like never before. This should be considered in the context that our southern neighbour Sri Lanka is facing evidence of its top politician and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as having been financed in the General Election two years back by China’s investments in the port which has been leased out for 99 years to China along with 15,000 acres of adjoining land to develop an industrial park. Details of payments made to Rajapaksa through various Chinese channels have been made public. That Sri Lanka had been virtually drowned in a debt amounting to eight billion dollar to China was the reason Sri Lanka had to give in to Chinese demands for the strategic post. Yet the country still owes some seven billion dollars even after deducting the estimated value of the port. This puts Sri Lanka under pressure of Chinese political demands. Many independent analysts have cautioned about how Sri Lanka would be affected by the deal and its problems would multiply.

For India, its western neighbour and the southern strategic island neighbour both coming under China’s influence cannot be good news. Pakistan, it must be remembered has been promised a Chinese investment of 50 billion dollars for the industrial corridor connecting Xinjiang on Karakoram’s north to Gwadar on the Arabian Sea-Indian Ocean in Pakistan.

That also involves Pakistan ceding part of its territory in Kashmir, which it holds by force and which belongs to India by virtue of entire Jammu & Kashmir being part of India, thereby entering into an illegal transaction at our cost. In the process, it poses a threat to our security. Now Sri Lanka also poses a similar threat through leasing out a strategic port along the sea lane near our coast. China played a part in getting the Seychelles to hum and haw on going through with the naval facility it was willing to provide India. It is to the great credit to the Indian Government that it was able to persuade Seychelles President Danny Faure to cancel a proposed deal with China and restore naval and maritime facilities to India. The way China is building up its “road and belt” surrounding India is a warning to us that Beijing’s repeated statements of working for peace and security in the region should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Irrespective of what happens in Pakistan during the forthcoming polls — three things are certain: The Army and the Islamic clergy will continue to call the shots in the strife-ridden country and its policy of bleeding India through a thousand cuts followed by successive regimes in Islamabad too will remain unchanged. And Pakistan will continue to be China’s partner and a co-conspirator against India.

(The Balbir Punj   r is a political commentator and a former BJP Rajya Sabha MP)

Courtesy: Pioneer: Monday, 02 July 2018