Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury   

Thaw On Cards CAATSA that codifies all Obama-era sanctions and introduces new ones is unlikely to be diluted at the summit but tensions between Washington and Moscow may ease which will benefit India

India is cautiously wishful about the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki on July 16 which could lead to a thaw in USRussia ties, enabling New Delhi to further its strategic partnership with both Moscow and Washington.

While the summit is unlikely to dilute CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), which codifies all Obama-era sanctions and introduce new ones, there are hopes of a deal or understanding between the two sides to improve relations.

While India and Russia expanded their hydrocarbon and nuclear energy partnership since 2014, sanctions on Russia enabled China to enhance its economic portfolio with Moscow, impacting strategic balance in the Eurasian region. Meanwhile, international sanctity of CAATSA that is looming large over India’s proposed purchase of S-400 missile systems from Russia has been marked by scepticism in certain quarters. This is one of the key irritants in Indo-US ties.

The Indian government has been unwilling to yield to US pressure to curtail its military ties with Russia and Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to Sochi for an informal summit with President Vladimir Putin in May to further strategic partnership including purchase of key defence system amid impending sanctions. New Delhi even voted supporting Russia’s viewpoint in the meeting of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague this week. The Sochi summit has created a platform for expansion of partnership across a range of areas besides defence and energy. These include strategic economic dialogue, a mega economic summit, joint project in Afghanistan and, importantly, a partnership for non-bloc security architecture in Indo-Pacific region. Modi went on to acknowledge his summit with Putin at the Shangri-La Dialogue on security in Singapore on June 1.

A reduction in tensions between the US and Russia will benefit India that has wide-ranging ties with both powers and is weathering a storm in the current geopolitical environment, people familiar with the issue said. The US continues to be a partner for India in the Indo-Pacific to ensure stability in the region.

While India will continue to fulfil its commitments vis-à-vis Russia, a positive trajectory in the US-Russia partnership may act as a deterrent in further enhancement in Sino-Russian ties, according to one of the people. “Reduction in US-Russia tensions is good for the world including India. It could be the beginning of a process and the two countries may want to enter into an understanding or deal. However, Trump may face internal pressure disallowing him any room to manoeuvre and enter into a deal and it is awaited how much space is allowed by US Congress to Trump. Nonetheless the summit has provided an opportunity,” said the person.

Relations between Washington and Moscow became the most strained since the end of the Cold War during the administration of President Barack Obama, who imposed sanctions during the Ukraine crisis. US intelligence agencies also accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 US election, an allegation Moscow has repeatedly denied and has found support from Trump.

Notwithstanding Trump's intentions and remarks since his campaign days to improve ties with Moscow, the US government has been at loggerheads with Russia, which some analysts described as Russophobia.

The sanctions impacted Russian economy and also caused economic damage to a number of EU countries that trade with Russia and have investments in Russia and vice versa.

DipanjanRoy.Chaudhury@timesgroup.com

Courtesy: Times Group: 30062018