Nayan Chanda  

President Donald Trump’s dramatic recent moves – from separating children from their asylum-seeking parents to launching trade wars against all of America’s main trading partners – have added an alarming new dimension to the adage that “all politics is local.” Whether his goals are to deliver victory to the Republican Party in November’s midterm elections or merely to ensure his own political survival, all of these measures have significant global ramifications.

As special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 election continues to cast a pall over Trump’s presidency, preserving Republican control of Congress in November has assumed almost existential importance. Allowing Democrats to win control of the House opens the possibility of a vote to impeach (though removing him from office requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate, which remains unlikely). All of Trump’s actions now – his harsh anti-immigrant measures and provocative trade tariffs and even seeking peace with North Korea’s ‘little Rocket Man’ – are designed to galvanise his supporters to block the energised Democrats and prevent the so-called “Blue Wave” from crashing over his presidency. However, this domestic battle has already triggered a global trade war, the unintended consequences of which could ricochet back and hurt some of the very voters Trump needs in November.

Candidate Trump secured his party’s nomination and ultimately the presidency by capitalising on the anger and disillusionment of voters who felt marginalised by globalisation, especially the demographic and cultural challenges brought on by rising non-white migration and job losses wrought by global trade and automation. Attendees at raucous Trump rallies across America’s heartland cheered as he blamed foreigners – and America’s own entangling trade and security alliances – for their misfortunes.

With the US riding an economic boom and unemployment at a record low, Trump has stoked fears by casting Democrats as supporters of uncontrolled immigration and trade competitors who threaten America’s Christian faith, culture and economic independence. He has tried to present himself as a strong leader, prepared to take tough, unpopular measures like separating children from their asylumseeking parents, discarding established legal protections, and launching tariff wars against not only China but traditional allies like Canada, Japan and the European Union. To showcase his deal making prowess, he has already proclaimed victory in transforming North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from a “sick puppy” out to attack America to an honourable and trustworthy leader who “loves his people” and is committed to relinquish his nuclear arsenal in exchange for foreign investments. The absence of evidence that North Korea intends to do any such thing is largely irrelevant to his diehard supporters.

Still, reality is stubborn and pesky. The EU has hit back with counter tariffs (India too has promised to impose higher tariffs) that threaten workers, farmers and traders from many sectors – even the Harley-Davidson motorbike factory that Trump once praised as an iconic American product. Faced with 31% EU tariffs, the company has announced plans to move production outside the US and thus threaten many domestic jobs. Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports have prompted factories to cut losses by laying off workers. Farmers who supported Trump now dread the loss of their main market as China threatens to retaliate with tariffs on American soybean and other farm exports. US consumer goods manufacturers face high costs for their imported components.

Trump the real estate mogul failed to appreciate the importance of the intricately woven supply chain that underpins the globalised world economy. His attempts to provide relief to big US steel and aluminium producers by imposing tariff on foreign imports has endangered thousands of small businesses that rely on foreign inputs. One such factory is a Missouri-based nail maker that has already been forced to lay off hundreds of workers.

The fate of such manufacturers may not be the proverbial nail in the coffin of Trump’s midterm campaign but a sharp reminder that globalisation can always bite back.

Courtesy: Times Group: 30062018