India’s Kim Equation

India reached out to North Korea, but with Kim back to his mercurial self, what’s next for the nuclear deal?

Minister of State for External Affairs Vijay Kumar Singh’s visit to Pyongyang to meet authorities from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) was a bolt from the blue as it was surrounded by secrecy. This was the first visit by an Indian Minister to North Korea in 20 years and comes in light of the thaw between the Trump Administration and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. While Singh did not meet Kim, his visit was important. If North Korea reenters the formal global economy, there are huge opportunities for Indian companies in the once pariah state. At the same time, North Korea has played an instrumental part in global nuclear and missile technology proliferation. It is beyond doubt that North Korea has provided their technology, possibly acquired from under-the-table China, to help Pakistan’s ballistic missile and nuclear programme. India’s refusal to engage with North Korea, even though we have an outpost in Pyongyang, gave the country a lien to do so. India’s outreach to North Korea is welcome and a positive move, even if conducted in secrecy.

However, India’s outreach happened on a day when Kim Jong-un reverted to type and lashed out at the US, particularly new US National Security Advisor, the abrasive John Bolton. While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been deliberately vague in his comments on the potential Trump-Kim meeting scheduled for June 12 in Singapore, Bolton has been adamant that North Korea would have to give up all their fissile material. This puts Trump, who had held out on appointing Bolton for a while, in quite a spot. Trump views the Singapore summit as a major foreign policy success and indeed it is. He also thinks of himself as a ‘great negotiator’ and does not want a repeat of the ‘deal’ with Iran, in which he correctly surmised that the US gave too much away. But Bolton’s indiscretion in talking to the media might mean that Trump’s signature foreign policy move might be scuttled even before he starts. Trump has to choose carefully, but Bolton was feared by many people in the global establishment because of his trigger-happy approach. He played a key role in getting the US mired in Iraq, he almost certainly pushed Trump to cancel the Iran deal and he has clearly tried to get a particular sort of deal from North Korea, one that involves the country surrendering to US interests. Unfortunately, his megalomania is similar to that of Donald Trump himself, so the question is: Will Trump, who is very fond of firing people, fire him as well? Bringing North Korea back into the global fold is more important than one man, hopefully Trump realises that. Bolton will have to back down.

Courtesy: Pioneer: Friday, 18 May 2018