Is Pakistan Disintegrating

 

Recent events in our western neighbour, Pakistan are giving rise to a very pertinesit question is Pakistan tuttertog towards its disintegration? Three of its four provinces are secing violent protests and armed rebellions against the current regime and Pakistan Army- Baluchistan, Cyber Pakhtumea (KPK) and Sird. On March 11, Baloch rebete hijacked an dentine train, leading to hundreds of deaths Soon after, a convoy of the army was targeted by suicide bombers near Noshki, Baluchistan, resulting in over 90 deaths. With dozens of attacks taking place daily, Pakistani establishment appears to be in a panic mode, not knowing how to hold the country fogether! In Feb 2025 there were 121 fatalities in different parts of Baluchistan and KPK, half of which were from Pakistani security forces-March tally is bound to be much higher. Pakistan is at 72 in the Global Terrorism Index of countries affected by terrorism. Daily, attacks on the security forces are increasing as per a well-known Pakistani You Tuber Nimra Ahmed. as many as 58 attacks took place in one day in the two disturbed provinces of Pakistan, creating a scare in the Pakistani society. What is alarming for Pakistani commentators like Oriya Maqbool Jan is the alarming increase in sectarian violence. In all three provinces, it is the Punjabis that are being targeted. Recent months have seen targeted killings of Punjabi workers and army personnel. One of India's foremost defence analysts and a keen Pakistan watcher, Mr Tilak Devesher (ex RAW and bureaucrat), in a recent discussion on TV made some very interesting observations. In his words, I have never seen Pakistan this bad with multiplicity of crises looming on the horizon!" Mr Devesher has listed these as: Leadership Crisis: Due to lack of understanding, lack of courage, poor vision in both civil and military bendendup, everybody is het kicking the can dorm the road, bterally passing tur buck, cosulting in ad hoc decsun making us every aspect of administration. Mr Shahbaz Sharif and lus hatch-patch conglomerate are te desht in power but theory do not appear to be in control. The Koran quoting Chief of Army. Gen Atit Munir hae preferred to be a 'shadowy power behind the throne person. Nobody really knows where the power lies. Incidentally. Dr. Moved Peerzada, a British-Pakistani analyst calls Gen Munir a mentally challenged person Security Crisis Due to actions of various separatist organizations, two provinces, Baluchistan & KPK are facing a serious security threat. On one hand we have the TTF BLA and over half a dozen organizations attacking the Pakistan Army posts and establishments across the two provinces and, on the other hand, we have the Afghan Taliban refusing to accept the Durand Line as a valid boundary between Afghanistan and Pakistan. What is galling for hard-core army defenders is that Pakistan Army has lost respect in the eyes of a large segment of Pakistanis (Tenrec-e-Insaf and Imran Khan supporters) following a barrage of criticism by Imran Taliban Khan and his team on social media, ever since he was 'dethroned' in April 2022 The powerful slogan remains, Yeh jo dehshatgardihai, iskepeechevardihai," (it is the army that is responsible for all the lawlessness and terrorism). As per several Pakistani reports, over two thousand Pakistani soldiers have resigned from their organizations in recent weeks, particularly following the separatist attacks in Baluchistan and KPK. It is being claimed that Pakistan Govt has cancelled the March 23 'Pakistan Resolution Day celebration Normally the b ment include grand parade in Islamabad weaklings the nation's military pri Gett Mimir has added a new dunews by Josanding that Pakistan nende to be a hant of being Secunty State he has not spelled out what exactly he means by Hard stated He has decried prior being paid by the administrative failure of Govt. The political factional killings in are nothing new Me pointed out, right froes the under of Liaqat Al Khan (Oct 1951), Paksitan har en such pattical Killings on a regular basis, Zulfiqar Mitto was banged by the Army for getting a political opponent murdered (April 1979). A very interesting observation made by Mr Tilak is that not one murder mystery has by Milk or anyone charged for the Pakistan- be it the killing of 1988) or Benazir Bhutte (Dec 200 brothers, Shahn war and known to bump off people used them Azam Tariq, the guy who set up AnujumanSipahi Sahaba and Mr Akram Lahori who set up Lashkar-e Jhangvt, were eliminated once they outlived their unlity Likewise, Killings of Nawab Akbar Bugti. Prince Abdul Karim of Kalat and the marginalization of grassroot leaders like Badshah Khan, his son Khan Abdul Wali Khan and Ghaus Bakhsh Bizenjo (Baba-e-Baluchistan) all pose questions that demand answers! Political crisis: Right since its birth, Pakistan has been beset with an existentialist crisis As Rauf Kalasra, the well-known Pakistani TV commentator so succulently put it." Since 1947 we have been saying ki Pakistan apni history kesabsenazukdaur se guzarrabehat" (Since 1947 we have been saying that Pakistan is passing thru the most challenging time of its history). Since it came into existence, Pakistan has had 23 Prime Ministers, starting with Liaqat Ali Khan in 1947 to the current, Shahbaz Sharif but not a single PM has been able to complete a 5-year term! Pakistan has been ruled by Military dictators for almost 4 decades since 1947-Ayub Khan (1958 24 and I'vrver Musharraf (1999-2009) Lack of political stabiliry booms more apparent when one comidees that East Pakistan seveded from West Pakistan os 1971, giving birth to an independent wintry-Bangladesh. The glue of Islam and the concept of Muslim Ummah sectionne unatuck within 25 years of as inception Mind East and West Pakistan together obviously Sao 1958, Pakistan Army has been nunning the Pancuntry, either directly on, through its selected Eremitical stooges, including Imran Khan, the Zardaris and the Shirt brothers Feb 2024 elections have split the political parties into pro-Imran and anti-Imran camps with a few political fence altters. So bifter is the divide that two camps are not willing to sit together in the same roum, even during a chatthal male Imran Taliban Klun date beeldatenignite the current government as he himself Canal forgetting conveniently that hit he army product of the machinations’ of the army bras Following the tram hijacking and other attacks, Pakistan's National Securitye (ing by the invited all political parties to a briefing by the Pakistan Army and 151 on 18.03.25 but Imran Khan's party refused to attend the meeting. sending a clear signal to the nation about tie major divide within the political spectrum even on nation's security and very existenc With the blessings of the Army, Pakistan has seen establishment of religious armies like the Tehreek-e-Labbaik, Sahibe-Sipaha, TTP, Jaish-e Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Toiba which are a rule unto themselves and act as pressure groups These armies are used to destabilize governments by the 'establishment. Having marginalized all minorities including the Shias, some kind of sectarian warfare between various sub sects of the dominant Sunni Muslim populace has started. Having subdued the Bareilvi sect of Sunnis, suddenly, the Deobandi sect of Sunnis is under fire from the Salafi group. On Feb 28, 2025, Darul Uloom Haqqania seminary (in KPK), known as the University of Jihad was targeted, killing its head, Hamid Ul Haq Haqqani and 6 others. On March 16, Mufti Abdul Baqi Noorzai of JUL was killed in Quetta,allegally by the Palatmic State military Such ngsbased sextarian or religious fault Love have become a daily affair in Pakistan revealing yet another merging Faultline in Errouter crials For last several decades Pakistan has been facing a severe economic crevis forcing it to go to the IMF and the World Bank fur payment and debt relief bailouts Pakatan faces significant economic challenges including a high debt burden and a balance of payments crials. Currenths, Pakistan is in its 25th IMF program. Problem is that Pakistan consumes more than it produces and must import heavily to sustain itself. Imports need dollars and with a serious decline in exports. Pakistan is dependent on remittances from ib diaspora, IMF type bailouts, soft loans from friendly countries like KSA and UAE and commercial borrowings at high interest rates. The Debt to GDP ratio was at 77% in 2023. In. the last 4-5 years, Pakistan has survived largely due to the largesse of KSA, UAE and China which have provided soft loans or rolled back due loans and even subsidized Oil to Pakistan! As per Mr Devesher,  notwithstanding the love- hate nature of Us-stand US shy not allow Pakistan to sink totally because Pakistan has mastered the art of manipulating the US due to the security assistance, Recently Pakistan handed over Sharifullah, the Katrul airport bombing mastermind that killed 13 Americam soldiers in 2021, carming wholesome praise frum President Trump himself! Such cooperation between US and Pakistan is likely to continue because as per the grapevine Pakistan has 48 such texturiste in its custody which it shall handover strategically to win favours from the US from time to time! So, the IMF tranches shall continue to be received by Pakistan, saving it from bankruptcy in the nick of the time and keeping it afloat! Crisis in Judiciary: Judiciary in Pakistan has rarely covered itself in glory right thru its history Judiciary has always remained under the army jackboots and mostly people have little faith in the judicial system. Judges have learnt to bend with the direction of political breeze in Pakistan. Years back, the hanging of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was termed as a 'judicial murder by the world press! In a recent case, when Imran Khan was to be presented before the Supreme Court, Chief Istorimar Ata Banihal sent a Mendes Car to the prison to leach him and greened home tha Good to you welcome remark padiciary has always been a crumbling pillar of flawed democracy called Pakistan! Nove the 26th ainendment has further emasculated Judiciary in Pakistan, reducing the credibility in the eyes of man on the streets further The situation in Pak start is so fluid today that one seriously cannot predict what tomorrow shall bring. Recently, three retired Army Chiefs led by Gem Jahangir Kara mat publicly criticized the current Army Chiet for his failure to provide leadership. For all we know, Pakistan might face another army coup by the time this goes to print However, it is certain that religious and sectarian fault lines within Pakistan shall lead to its balkanization within foreseeable future (2-3 years?). Baluchistan might be the first province to declare its independence followed by KPK with strong support from the Pashtuns in Afghanistan. Sind, the third restive province is already up in arms due to an Army induced water crisis. The army plans to take the Indus waters to irrigate the Cholistan Desert by digging 6 mg 30-40% upstream Already. facing shortage of water for its wheat crop Tarbela and Mangla dam reservoirs are practically dry. Late Mr GM Syed, the Sindhi nationalist, once led the call for independent Sindhu Desh. That movement is subterranean as of today but with the right kind of encouragement, the movement can become another centrifugal force. So, Pakistan might see major violent disintegration soon-more due to its own inner contradictions! Disintegration of Pakistan shall pose a fresh set of challenges for India. No country wishes to have instability on its borders. India already has an unstable and volatile neighbour in its east. If Pakistan were to disintegrate, we shall have yet another neighbour in Sindhudesh besides having to deal with Baluchistan and Pakhtunistan on its Western borders Disintegration can have a calming effect o India's own restive Muslim population who ar still dreaming of creating several mini-Pakista enclaves within India. We certainly are living very interesting geo-political times!

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Courtesy: Sanjeev Munshi and Koshur Samachar-2025 , April