BJP-PDP alliance break-up Experiment sans desired results

The Political fallout of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and he Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) coalition government's collapse in Jammu & Kashmir on June 19 won't be huge as simmering for a divorce had become obvious in recent months Only the manner in which BJP pulled the rug from the feet of Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti was unpredictable, the rest was as per the script known to both strange bedfellows It wasn't a consensual divorce eventually.

Just a little after three years and three months, the alliance between the BJP and PDP, which resulted in the installation of Mufti Mohd Sayeed as the Chief Minister of the state on March 1, 2015, his second term and made the BJP come to power in the state on the shared basis, for the first time ever in J & K's history, much easier also ended without living up to its substantive goals of bringing developmental peace and normalcy to the trouble-torn state Sayeed, a political scientist and a Kashmir politics veteran, didn't live himself enough to provide a bulwark around this, what many both in the valley as well as the rest of the country, called unholy alliance. He himself called it coming together of north and south poles.

Multi Sayeed, a long time Congressman and a former Union Home Minister, was a natural ally of Congress, whose support made him Chief Minister in 2002 for the first time, but this time he preferred BJP after the later almost swept the Jammu region in 2014 (Nov-Dec Assembly elections) His public argument was that in order to harmonise the developmental agenda of the state, his party and BJP represented the mandate of Kashmir and Jammu, respectively, and their coming together will be a win-win situation not only for the state but for the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre as well Peace dividend was his selling proposition.

Together of Rajiv Gandhi and Dr Farooq Abdullah (National Conference-Congress Accord of 1987), a large number of his own workers behaved the same way BJP which during electioneering and otherwise used to accuse PDP of soft separatism, did also receive its share of backlash from its cadre and ideological supporters.

But as is said, politics is the art of possibilities and there are no permanent foes or friends in the political battlefield, the two parties did start their bonhomie to implement the agenda of alliance with Sayeed at the helm of affairs And he weathered the initial period of this alliance reasonably well though undercurrents of mass mistrust were alive. And, all this while BJP ministers, first timers, were on the learning curve which made PDP's work.

It was later when BJP ministers and BJP itself realised that their style of work had antagonised the public and a widespread anger was fanning across the constituents and its boroughs in Jammu that the party began to have second thoughts on continuing in the government. This was one of the main reasons for exiting from the coalition government even though the party had still about three years left to tide over this situation. However, as most observers and commentators believe, it was BJP's national compulsion and call that hastened the breaking up of its alliance in J&K.

The progressively deteriorating conditions in the valley and the onset of a new wave of local militancy and large public protests over deaths didn't augur well for the image of the nationalist right wing party led government at the Centre. Two, with a regional party (PDP) openly batting for open borders and dialogue with Pakistan being its ally, the BJP campaigners for 2019 election would have had a continued hindrance at bashing its core 'opposition' and raking up emotional However, like he once vehemently opposed coming issues for gamering votes.

And political opponents, like in recent state elections, would show no mercy on BJP in exposing its dichotomy, double speaks and inefficiency as far as yet again. Kashmir is concemed. So, in order to provide freedom of expression to its own agenda setters, speakers, ideologues and others, the BJP thought it prudent to get rid of PDP In the given circumstances, it was only expected.

That is so far as the next year's election concerns go for the ruling BJP, but what happens to the J&K state which is a conflict zone at the moment with a and watch proxy war waged by Pakistan Following her father's death Mehboona Mufti, on January 7, 2016, whom he had groomed as his heir apparent, herself an astute and experienced politician, took over the reins of the alliance government with the same agenda on April 6, 2016. She made every attempt to follow the path of her late father but she was not as lucky as her father was. Soon after she took over, the militancy-related violence and unrest entered a new phase in Kashmir with the might of bullet, pen and civilian protests.

Mehbooba and her father, who together founded PDP in 1999 after quitting Congress, in a short span of time occupied a vast political space in Kashmir which was earlier matched only by Jammu Kashmir National Conference (NC). So, when the slightest opportunity presented itself NC attempted to make most of it. With losing space, clout and power, NC leadership played to the gallery, appeased separatists and ostensibly fanned mistrust for PDP even as some believe with its money and muscle.

Cow vigilantism, motormouthing by a few BJP members against Muslims and the famous 'intolerance campaign-all added up in Kashmir as 'social media hate relay against BJP The anti-national elements separatists and adversaries from across the border kept the pot boiling and this provided them a ground and ammunition for recruiting more people and also fanning its radical ideology.

Sandwiched between these two adverse again undercurrents, PDP despite, its pro-people governance stance, was losing mass appeal The security environment post July, 2016, particularly in south Kashmir areas kept deteriorating and bye-election for Anantnag parliamentary necessitated as Mehbooba Mufti, who represented it became chief minister hasn't future. been held in the last two years. As per the latest reports, the Governor had sought postponement of this election yet again. 

At the same time PDP and its leader can't be written off even though recently some rebellious voices did emerge from a few sitting MLAs from the party. It being a grassroots level organisation with several seasoned politicians and a track record of resilience, PDP will remain a political force in the political process in the state whenever it is initiated in whatever form. So, wait and watch.

Of several schools of thought on the political turmoil in the state, two thoughts need some attention. One is saying that political vacuum in the state is bad and, if prolonged, it will further deepen the perceived mistrust and divide between Kashmiris and the rest of the country. It will also mean disrespect to democratic institutions, neglect of political rights and disconnect between people and the government. It will also become a potent weapon in the hands of forces inimical to return of normalcy and peace in the valley. And then political workers will also find it difficult to remain relevant.

The second thought is that the governor rule provides a kind of breather for all political forces in the state wherein they can think of alignments or realignments, strategies and strengthening of their parties. Moreover, the uncomfortable law and order issue, that has revisited the valley in the form of local militant recruits, can be tackled without any political interference by the security agencies.

All eyes will be on 2019 election and who comes to power in New Delhi. Whatever the results will influence Kashmir politics deeply And any presumptions before that may not hold much water.

The minority Kashmiri Pandits, bulk of whom have been displaced from their homes and live as refugees (sans that status) in their own country in Jammu and the rest of the country, will be interested in seeing their issue settled instead of becoming an election issue

The BJP-PDP experiment may not have succeeded as of now but it has in some ways brought more maturity to state's politics and helped a lot of people to cross the imaginary line of wrong perceptions and impossibilities. Hope all have learnt their lesson well for a better play in future.

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Courtesy:-  Avtar Nehru and Koshur Samachar 2018, July