NAYA BHARAT ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE TO VISHWAGURU

 

India has played a crucial role in the global economy for centuries. It has been a major centre of trade, production, innovation, Philosophy, religion and science. In this article we shall review the economic and cultural influence of India across different historical periods. How India was the centre of trade, commerce and cultural exchanges in the ancient times, The gradual decline with the Islamic invasions, their rule, the collapse during the colonial periods and the re-emergence in the last 10-15 years. ANCIENT & CLASSICAL PERIODS (BEFORE 1ST CENTURY CE) Early Trade Networks: India was a key player in global trade from the time of the Indus Valley Civilization (2600–1900 BCE). Hardpans traded with Mesopotamia and Egypt, exporting cotton, beads, and precious stones. Spice trade: India was a major hub for spice trade, exporting spices like cinnamon, cardamom, and pepper to the Middle East, Mediterranean, and China. Textile trade: Indian textiles, such as cotton and silk, were highly prized in ancient Rome, Egypt, and China.

 Vedic and Maurya Period: The Maurya Empire (321–185 BCE) established extensive trade networks, connecting India with Central Asia, Greece, and China. Emperor Ashoka’s reign promoted economic and cultural exchanges not to forget, Budhism. Indian Ocean trade network: India was a key player in the Indian Ocean trade network, which connected the East and West. India had maritime trade links with Rome, Persia, China, and Southeast Asia. Takshila, Mithila and Madurai were some of the well-known institutions/knowledge centres during this period. GOLDEN AGE (1ST CENTURY CE – 13TH CENTURY) As per the Angus Maddison’s widely used estimates, India accounted for around 33 per cent of the world economy in 1 AD. In order to avoid the vagaries of exchange rates and relative prices, these estimates were done on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. (Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a popular macroeconomic analysis metric used to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries. PPP involves an economic theory that compares different countries’ currencies through a “basket of goods” approach.

That is, PPP is the exchange rate at which one nation’s currency would be converted into another to purchase the same amounts of a large group of products. PPP is an important metric because it provides a way to compare levels of growth and standards of living in various nations, each of which has its own currency.) At that time China’s share at 26 per cent was the second largest while Western Europe (mostly under Roman rule) accounted for almost 11 per cent. Thus, India and China combined had a 59% share of the world GDP. Gupta Empire (4th–6th Century CE): Marked by economic prosperity, India became a hub for science, art, and trade. Indian textiles, spices, and gems were highly sought after by Roman and Chinese merchants. Palava Dynasty (275-897CE) and the Chola Dynasty (9th–13th Century CE): They dominated maritime trade in the Indian Ocean, establishing trade links with Southeast Asia and China. Ports like Mamallapuram and Kaveripattanam thrived. Spread of Indian Culture, Science& Economy: Indian numerical systems, religious philosophies,Buddhism, Hinduism,Ramayana, Mahabharata, Astrology, astronomy, Sanskrit and textiles trade spread across Asia and the Middle East. ‘From about 250BCE to 1200 CE, India was a confident exporter of its own diverse civilisation, creating around it an empire of ideas, which developed into a tangible ‘Indosphere’ where its cultural influence was predominant.

 During this period, the rest of Asia was the willing and even an eager recipient of a startlingly comprehensive mass transfer of Indian soft power in religion, art, music, dance, textiles, technology, astronomy, mathematics, medicine, mythology, language and literature.’ (William Dalrymple - The Golden Road) The global contribution to world’s GDP by major economies from 1 AD to 2008 AD according to Angus Maddison’s estimates.The %GDP of Western Europe in the chart is the region in Europe that includes the following modern countries - the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and other smaller states in the Western part of Europe. The %GDP of Middle East in the chart is the region in West Asia and Northeast Africa that includes the following modern countries - Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Yemen, Iran, Iraq and others in the Arabian region. In 1000 AD, India was still the world’s largest economy with a share of 29 per cent. China’s share too had declined a tad to 23 per cent but was still the second-largest economy. Europe’s share had fallen below 9 per cent after the decline of the Roman empire.

 The well-known institutions of knowledge and learning during this era were the Nallanda, Vikramshilla, and Ujjain. Vallabhi, Shardapeeth,Pushpagiri, Kanchi, Ennayiram, Shringeri, and Mammalapuram (Mahabalipuram) universities. MEDIEVAL PERIOD (13TH–17TH CENTURY) Islamic trade: With the advent of Islamic rule in India, trade with the Middle East and Central Asia increased, with India exporting textiles, spices, and precious stones. The Turk and the Mongol invasions in the 13th/14th century damaged the existing economic nodes for trade and commerce.

Vijayanagara Empire: The Vijayanagara Empire (1336-1646 CE) was a major centre of trade and commerce, with merchants from all over the world visiting its ports. Delhi Sultanate & Mughal Empire: India’s economy continued to flourish under the Mughals (16th–18th century). It was still one of the richest regions in the world, producing high-quality textiles, spices, and precious metals. During the Islamic Sultanates, Persian became the language of the government across most of India. By 1500, China had recovered under the Ming Empire to become the world’s largest economy with a share of 25 per cent. India’s share had by now declined to 24.5 per cent but, with the Vijayanagar empire at its height, it was still the second largest. India as a Global Exporter: India contributed an estimated 23% of the world’s GDP in the 17th century. The cities of Surat, Machlipatnam, and Bengal(Tamralipti port) were key trade centres. European Arrival (15th Century Onwards): The Portuguese, Dutch, French, and British began establishing trade posts, eager to access India’s lucrative goods.

 INDIA’S SHARE OF THE WORLD GDP (Angus Maddison’s estimate on PPP basis) By 1600, however, China’s share jumped to 29 per cent. In contrast, India’s share dropped further to 22.6 per cent as the economic shock of the sacking of Jayanagar, then the world’s largest city, was not compensated by the establishment of the Mughal empire. The Mughals nurtured some economic hubs but disrupted others as a part of their conquests. Most of the established centres (Nalanda, Sharada…..) of learning of India were destroyed by the Islamic rulers. Colonial Period (18th–20th Century): British Economic Drain/ Colonial Exploitation: The British East India Company and later British colonial rule (1757–1947) exploited India’s wealth, leading to de-industrialization and economic stagnation. India’s resources were used to fuel British industrialization. Opium Trade & Globalization: India was forced to produce opium, which was then exported to China.

India became a major supplier of opium to China under British rule, fuelling the Opium Wars. Indian cotton also played a role in the global textile trade. Railways & Infrastructure: While the British built railways, roads, and ports, these mainly served colonial extraction rather than India’s economic development. During the rise of the East India company and the Victorian Raj, English gradually replace Persian and India became part of the Anglosphere and the Indians who wished to get ahead had to abandon or at least sublimate much of their own culture and become English-speaking ‘Brown Sahibs’. English was now the route to advancement. The subsequent centuries saw the expansion of European colonisation and, from the late eighteenth century, the Industrial Revolution.

However, China remained the world’s economic superpower. In 1820, China accounted for 33 per cent of global GDP while India’s share had dropped to 16 per cent. Colonial exploitation by the East India Company and the incessant wars with Marathas (and others) had taken their toll. The nineteenth century was a time of very radical shifts. China’s share dropped to 17 per cent by 1870 and then to 9 per cent by 1913. India’s share similarly dropped to 12 per cent and then to below 8 per cent on the eve of the First World War. India’s place in the world clearly suffered from the colonial occupation but notice that China’s decline was even more dramatic. The Opium Wars, the various internal rebellions and technological stagnation took their toll. In contrast, the share of Western Europe rose to peak at 33.5 per cent of the world economy between 1870 and 1913.

The relative trajectories of individual countries, however, are interesting. Britain’s share rose to a peak of 9.1 per cent in 1870 and then declined to 8.3 per cent (this excludes its colonies). That of Germany rose from 6.5 per cent to 8.8 per cent in the same period. Thus, Germany had a larger economy on the eve of the First World War but Britain had an empire. Meanwhile, the United States had grown very rapidly over the previous century to become the world’s single-largest economy with a share of 19 per cent in 1913. Following the Second World War, its share rose to over 27 per cent by 1950. The USSR with a share of 9.6 per cent was a distant second (this would be its peak and it would gradually decline over the next four decades till it finally collapsed). Exhausted by the two wars and the steady loss of its colonies, Britain’s share had declined to 6.5 per cent by 1950 and the number has continued to decline ever since.

 The shares of newly independent India and China were similar at 4.2 per cent and 4.5 percent respectively. This was a drastic loss for the two civilisations that had dominated the world economy for millennia, but the Chinese perhaps felt the humiliation more keenly as the decline had happened more recently and sharply. POST-INDEPENDENCE & MODERN ERA (1947–PRESENT): Early Economic Policies: India adopted a socialist economic model with state-led industrialization, but growth was slow.India adopted a policy of import substitution, focusing on domestic production and reducing dependence on foreign goods.

Green Revolution: India’s agricultural sector experienced a significant transformation with the introduction of high-yielding crop varieties, irrigation, and fertilizers. Liberalization (1991): Indiafaced a worst scenario in 1990/1991 when the world bank and IMF bailed out India from that on condition that it change to Free market economy from the regulated regime. Thus, a liberalization of foreign investment happened in 1990. The liberalization increased competition between firms. The Economic reforms in 1991 opened up the Indian economy to global markets, foreign investment, trade, and competition, leading to rapid GDP growth. IT and software exports: India emerged as a major player in the global IT and software industry, with companies like Infosys, Wipro, and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) leading the way. SHARE OF WORLD GDP (IMF ESTIMATES) PPP BASIS Emerging Global Power: India is now a major player in global technology, pharmaceuticals, and services. It is one of the fastest-growing economies, contributing to global trade, manufacturing, and digital transformation.

The US is still the world’s largest economy in nominal dollar terms but in PPP terms its share is now down to 15.5 per cent. Meanwhile, India’s share has been rising steadily. It rose from 4.3 per cent in 2000 to almost 8 per cent in 2024. In other words, it is already the world’s third-largest economy in PPP terms. Recall that this was India’s share on the eve of the First World War, and is still far below its pre-colonial share. The IMF predicts that by the end of this decade, China’s share of the world economy in PPP terms will level off at 19.5 per cent while that of the US will decline further to 14.7 per cent. Japan’s share will come down to 3.2 per cent while that of Britain will be at 2 per cent. In contrast, India’s share is expected to rise to 9.2 per cent of the world economy by 2030. This is no small reversal in the fortune for an economy that has suffered such a long cycle of relative decline.

 Today, India is the world’s: 1. 5th- largest economy (nominal GDP) 2. 3rd- largest economy (PPP) 3. 1st- largest population 4. Major player in global trade, with a significant presence in industries like IT, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and automotive. 5. Aims to be $30 Trillion economy and developed nation (Viksit Bharat) by 2047. 6. India has one of the lowest Debt/GDP ratios among all the leading economies. (World Economics Research, London has upgraded each country’s GDP presenting it in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data. Using the World Economics GDP Database, it is possible to see more realistic debt levels for each country.) India’s nominal GDP is set to hit USD 4 trillion in 2024-25. With Japan’s economy now valued at USD 4.1 trillion — reflecting a sharply weaker JPY — India is now tantalisingly close to becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy in dollar terms within a year. Germany’s nominal GDP is valued at USD 4.6 trillion and is growing relatively slowly. So, it is now reasonable to expect India to replace Germany as the world’s third-largest economy by 2026-27.

what is important to note is that while it took India 67 Years for her to reach the first trillion, the second trillion took only eight years and the third trillion just 5 years. India was at the 12th rank in 1990 (in the order of the GDP size of the countries) and 13th in 2000, From there it jumped to 9th rank in 2020 and by 2024, it jumped four places to move to the 5th rank. AMRITKAL2023-2047: The Hon. Prime Minister has declared the period 2023-2047 as the Amritkal and planned to take the country to a developed state by 2047. India’s Amritkal 2047 vision aims for Technological leadership, Maritime expansion and social safety nets. Global Offshoring, Digitisation and Energy transition will be the mega trends in India’s favour as per Morgan Stanley. India’s manufacturing and Export is expected to increase 16 times by 2047 and consumption by 9 times. India aims to become the Factory to the world (Manufacturing), Office to the world (services), Digital bus for the world (Technology) and Global influencer and Knowledge Guru.

Indeed, the importance of India’s current rise can only be properly understood on a civilisational timescale. While we rightfully celebrate the recent turn of fortune, it is also important to remember that we have a long way to go before India recovers its historical place in the world. ‘Over half the world’s population today lives in areas where Indian ideas of religion and culture are, or once were, dominant and where Indian gods ruled the imaginations and the aspirations of men and women. Indian influence has always been there in the Buddhism of Sri Lanka, Tibet, China, Korea and Japan, in the place names of Burma and Thailand, in the murals and sculptures of the Ramayana and Mahabharat in Laos and Cambodia, in the Hindu Gods, rituals and temples of Bali.’(William Dalrymple in The Golden Road) India has historically been a central force in global trade and commerce. From the wealth of ancient empires to the struggles under colonial rule and its modern resurgence as a global economic powerhouse, India’s role in the global economy continues to evolve.

While The Indian economy is on its path to regain its past glory, there is another kind of awakening which can be noticed across the country. India was a crucial fulcrum and a civilisational engine at the heart of the ancient and early medieval worlds and one of the main motors of global trade and cultural transmission. Indian culture and civilisation transformed everything they touched, and this was achieved not by the sword but by the power of its ideas. The Grand Ram temple at Ayodhya, revival of the oldest city and spiritual centre of India, Varanasi; reawakening of the traditional corridors of Sanatan Dharma across the country, BAPS Hindu Mandir at Abu Dhabi, Discovery of ancient statues of Indian Gods not only in India but many other countries, The Maha Kumbh gatherings at the Prayagraj where more than 65 crore people are reported to have taken the holy dip etc. have led to a great awakening in the philosophies of Sanatan Dharma across the globe. This awakening also marks the change in the outlook of a typical Bhartiya. He ions longer apologetic but proud ofhis eligion and civilisation. It also marks the end of the ‘Slave mentality’ that had made deep roots in the psyche of an Indian owing to the foreign rule and subjugation of 700 years. At the same time, there is another change in the mindset.

 Today’s India is not thinking in terms of incremental changes but looking for Exponential changes. It is incredible that in spite of more than 700 years for foreign rule, India has managed to keep its culture, ancient traditions and spirit of enterprise alive. Has India’s moment come again? Is India returning to its traditional place at the centre of the world affairs? Is India most suited to be the bridge between the eastern and the western civilisations as it represents a co-habitation and not a clash of the civilisations? With this rise of the Sanatan Civilisation, its spiritual quotient and the economic power; Is Naya Bharat well and truly poised to be the Vishwa Guru once again?

DISCLAIMER: 

The views expressed in the Article above are KRISHEN K KEMMU views and kashmiribhatta.in is not in any way responsible for the opinions expressed in the above article. The article belongs to its respective owner or owners and this site does not claim any right over it. Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing."

Courtesy: KRISHEN K KEMMU and  Spade A Spade-May 2025