Moderate Islam, Liberalized Saudi - New West Asian Order

Swarn Kumar Anand

At a time when Saudi Arabia is caught up in a whirling vortex of tremendous domestic and external challenges, the kingdom has given birth to a visionary and secular despot — unlike earlier rulers who invoked puritanical Islamic norms to legitimise and secure their rule — in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has allowed MBS to wield enormous power when the Government handouts have failed to keep the youth in good humour.

Cashing in on the undercurrent of resentment against rampant corruption, widespread nepotism and the gilded royal members who splurge national resources on themselves, MBS launched, in the name of the King, a massive anti-corruption drive arresting over 200 (till November 9) members, including billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and ousted head of the powerful National Guard Prince Miteb. MBS’ crackdown team has claimed that over $100 billion were siphoned off in the past two decades. However the timing of the ostensible anti-graft purge has raised obvious allegation: A power grab by crushing down the Crown Prince’s potential rivals and hurdles to the throne, under the guise of cleaning garbage for his ambitious Vision 2030 game plan designed to get rid of the desert country’s image as an oil-dependent state.

End of consensus

By usurping all powers, the Crown Prince has demolished the concept of “consensus”, among royal family members of the House of Saud, to nip in the bud any rivalry among the ruling clan. Although, according to a local custom, the King is the last word, “Assabiyah” (group solidarity) gives popular legitimacy to the royal authority. In the history of the kingdom, it is for the first time that ruling family members have been unceremoniously removed and persecuted publically.

Ironically, nobody is talking about the precursor to the anti-graft purge. MBS’ ambition is seen as the sole driving force. However, the foundation for such an unprecedented crackdown on members of the House of Saud was laid by King Salman, who strategically deviated from the agnatic seniority rule to appoint his son as successor. It has been done even when the youngest and the only other member of Sudairi Seven, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, is alive. In fact, when King Abdullah, the then monarch, had entrusted Prince Ahmed with the interior ministry — an important portfolio during those times when the kingdom was reeling under security threat from al-Qaeda and the Shia uprising was at its peak — in 2012, it was considered in Saudi Arabia as a confirmed ticket for Prince Ahmed to succeed then Crown Prince Salman (present King) as King. The day never came. King Salman did the trick by deviating from the custom of appointing his next younger brother (Ahmed) as the Crown Prince, and chose his nephew Muhammad bin Nayef Al Saud as the Crown Prince, only to be unceremoniously removed for King Salman’s son MBS. Surprising the deposed Crown Prince Nayef, who was awarded by the CIA for his contribution to counter-terrorism,

is one of the victims of the sweeping purge. When corruption is a widespread concern in the kingdom, King Salman could not choose a better moment to authorise his successor, MBS, to lead the war on corruption and consolidate his grip on power by earning kudos from the public.

New West Asian Order

The Crown Prince’s challenges are not limited to domestic ones. Saudi Arabia has long been facing hurdles in creating a new West Asian Order, an alignment that suits to the interest of the kingdom. It has been customary in Saudi Arabia for all kings to acknowledge themselves as custodians of two holiest places among Muslims — Mecca and Medina — to accentuate their leadership of Muslim-majority countries. This caused the kingdom to espouse the puritanical Islamic norms and assume charge as protector of the faithful and destroyer of the heretics such as Shias. However, in reality the conflict has seldom been driven by Sunni-Shia hatred, but the sectarian perception gives a peculiar twist to the predicament.

Seen in this context, Shia-majority Iran, with its own brand of Islamism, is a natural rival in public perception in Saudi Arabia, but in reality even the kingdom considers it an arch rival, albeit because it threatens Saudi hegemony in the Muslim world. Iran too considers Saudis are trying to create in the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region a new order that is inimical to the interest of Teheran. The result is interference by Saudis and Iran in the internal and external affairs of sovereign nations of WANA. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri is the latest casualty of MSB’s foreign policy. Sunni-majority Qatar is already angry for the ill-treatment by the kingdom and four of its Gulf neighbours on the charge of hobnobbing with Shia Iran.

MBS needs to work for further realignment against the backdrop of the void created by the collapse of ISIS as a functioning entity in Iraq. The Crown Prince’s task is more difficult as depending on who fills the space left by ISIS will have a major impact on the US’ security interests in the region.

MBS’ new war against Iran and his willingness to sign huge defence deal with the US have already made him the darling of the Trump administration. Now, MBS is trying to keep a balance between Russia and the US. “The main objective is not to have Russia place all its cards in the region behind Iran,” MBS has reported to have said.

The endgame

At the outset, the anti-corruption crackdown on high-ups and the Crown Prince’s overt endeavour to modernise the economy by shedding the total dependence on oil when its prices have been on the wane have created a good perception among the public, but the way the arrests — particularly of those considered as hurdles to MBS’ elevation to the throne — were made without credible evidence has stirred up a hornets’ nest. Though there is no overt resistance against the sweeping purge — to the contrary some denizens have showered praises on MBS on social media — the move is fraught with danger as deeply tribal Saudi Arabian history is witness to the consequences of public insult to royal family patriarchs or tribal heads/representatives in power.

Therefore, the Crown Prince needs to keep the tribal lords and the clerics in good humour as the House of Saud takes legitimacy in Wahabi Islam to rule the Kingdom. His idea of “moderate Islam” is set to ruffle a few feathers of a section of the cleric, but its seems MBS is relying on the ultra-conservative religious establishments, which have in the past thrown their weight behind the Kings in the time of crises, to extend at least “silent” support to his agenda of modernising Saudi Arabia.

MBS’ ambitious economic reforms will also face challenges as the “no taxation, no representation” premise based on the other royal legitimacy — rentierism that ensures free social economic services to the citizens — will take a hit. Two other biggest hurdles for him are unemployment and housing. Admitting reservations among the public about his agenda, he had told an investors’ conference in Riyadh, “If the Saudi people are convinced, the sky is the limit.” But that sky has several other potential dark clouds. For example, if the kingdom obliges US President Donald Trump by listing Aramco at the New York Stock Exchange, it may face the danger of seizure by the US authorities under the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which gave a legal option to the families of 9/11 victims to pursue a civil suit against Saudi Arabia to seek damages for its alleged involvement in the terror plot.

Also there is uncertainty as to how much “Vision 2030” will be successful in creating jobs. The question has arisen considering the fact that Neom — the planned investors’ hub where companies will not

be bound by the local rules — is expected to employ more machines than people.

On the external front, MBS has not been very successful. He has been leading a team to increase the kingdom’s regional influence and stem the expansion of the Shia crescent. His Yemen operation has cost the Saudi exchequer heavily, but MBS has failed to install his favourite Government there. Instead it took several innocent lives. In fact, the war helped Iran bolster its position as the defender of human rights in the Muslim world.

However, it will be injustice to write MSB off at the moment as the churning stirred by the ostensible anti-corruption purge is still going on. The young imminent successor to the throne must be given time and support to establish and prove his leadership credentials.

(The writer is Associate Editor,The Pioneer)

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Courtesy: Daily Pioneer: 11th November 2017