China s Retreat

The Positive statement from Chinese foreign Minister Wang Yi on 25th Dec 2022, stating that China is ready to work with India through the steady and sound growth of relations. This makes one to think; whether the change in China's attitude after Twang is an outcome of India's assertiveness, growing presence of America around China or because of China's own domestic compulsions or a combined effect of all these happenings The veracity of the truce is difficult to assess due to China's past record but compulsions which made the expansionist China to change its stance need to be analysed.

China mellowed down after its failed attempt of incursion to change the line of actual control in Yangtse area ofTwang sector in Arunachal Pradesh and has started to talk of mutual responsibility of the two countries to uphold stability in border areas where tension prevails since 2020, when China moved its troops to eastern Ladakh. In the fight at Galvan, China suffered heavily and 20 Indian troops attained their martyrdom China once again played its dirty trick in Twang but Indian forces were quite alert to repulse any such move from China. The Chinese troops withdrew seeing the assertive style of Indian forces. India's reaction got boosting from many countries like USA, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc and the world over. China was ridiculed for its expansionist attitude and Indian army'scontrolreaction was appreciated by one and all.

However, it is worthwhile to mention that when Indian army was demolishing Chinese nefarious designs, there were some Indian political leaders who saw Chinese beating Indian soldiers for the reasons best known to them. Their Statements seemed more in support of China than India,

Modi baiters may try to denounce the army but the fact is that India repulsed Chinese incursion attempts both at Galvan and Twang. Indian troops since 2017 (Doklam incident) gave a direct signal to China that India of 2023 is much different from India of 1962. The two countries have 17 rounds of talks so far (after Galvan) to resolve the standoff but things are yet to reach a reasonable conclusion. However, seeing the past history of Sino Indian relations things cannot be taken on the face value as we have seen the Panchsheel agreement of 1954 and the subsequent Indo China war of Oct, 1962 The Hindi Chinni Bhai slogan fizzled in the air and Aksai Chin a part of Ladakh measuring 38000 Kms was occupied by China. Those who fail to see the valour of Indian army at present I must also comment on how Aksai Chin was handed over to China in a plate due to the weak. political decisions.

 

China has been leaving no chance against India's interests, diplomatically, on the border, in association with Pakistan etc but since 2014 India changed its stance from submissiveness to assertion in diplomacy,trade and on the line of control etc. It worked for the formulation of QUAD conducted military exercises in border areas, did construction of road along the line of actual control,repulsed incursions of China aggressively on the border, in trade restricted Chinese free entry in Indian markets, banned certain items and thereby gave a signal to China that trade and aggression cannot go together. India's good relations with America has further suffocated China.

America too does not like to see China growing as a challenge to its economic ghegemonyin the world. There is a big tussle between the number one and number two t economy in the world America in order to contain the growing economic clout of Chinhas taken a direct confrontation with China by helping its neighbouring countries like, Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan etc. Its membership of QUAD and AUKUS is highly disregarded by China AUKUS was formed on 15 sep 2021 with US, UK and Australia as members under the pact UK and US will help Australia to acquire nuclear powered submarines It along with QUAD is expected to be a big deterrent to China's aggression in Asia Pacific region. These two blocks are seen as contempt by China for its expansionist strategy.

 

America even conducted military exercises with some of these countries. The relation between America and China on the trade front too has not been normal America accused China of unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft and even applied tariffs to contain it.China's exports to America increased at a great speed rather than American exports to China In response to US trade measures, the Chinese government accused the Trump administration of engaging in nationalist protectionism and took retaliatory action. The trade war between the two countries escalated in 2019 and in January 2020 the two sides reached a tense phase on agreement; it expired in December 2021 with China failing by a wide margin to reach its targets for U.S. imports to China By the end of the Trump presidency, the trade war was widely characterised as a failure His successor, Joe Biden kept tariffs in place.

China is currently America's largest goods trading partner with $559.2 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2020. Goods exports totalled $124.5 billion; goods imports totalled $434.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $310.3 billion in 2020. America imposed tariffs applied exclusively to Chinese goods worth US$550 billion between 2018-20. Multiple statements by former President Donald Trump suggested that American companies were to immediately search for bases other than China to avoid tariffs

In the post covid era the aggressive diplomatic initiatives by India, America, Australia and China's neighbouring countries have shown its colouron the one side and on the other president XI Jinping is leaving no stone unturned for creating mess in China His no covid policy, expansionist attitude, ill treatment to industrialists, power crises etc is giving acrimonious fruits at present. People's protest on roads against Chinese dictatorship is turning into a common feature. The Chinese Govt has given preference to economic growth over human lives by applying zero covid policy without any proper treatment. The economic growth rate of China is drastically coming down, people are facing high inflation and unemployment. Investors are withdrawing their investments from the country as a result, countries such as USA and Japan hastened their efforts to find alternatives to manufacturing bases in China. Countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines and India are competing among themselves to attract Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) fleeing from China.

Covid 19 has earned ill will for China across the globe for hiding the facts about the spread of the pandemic. In the current Covid wave certain countries are adopting tough measures towards Chinese visitors. Chinese spying in different countries has further downgraded China in the eyes of world

China at present is eclipsed by economic slowdown and pandemic onslaught. This has every potential to influence the international supply chain, as China is a major producing country of the world covering approximately 18 percent of the global GDP.For the first nine months of 2022, China's GDP grew by 3 percent. The World Bank has cut its forecast for China's 2022 economic growth to 2.7 percent, well below the official target of around 5.5 percent. Besides the economy, Beijing's 'zero-covid' policy in 2022 has often faced the wrath of domestic protests and criticism from the international community for further dampening the world economy. China lacks proper policy to tackle the pandemic instead it has resorted to massive lockdowns and restrictions.

All these things point to the fact that China was compelled to retreat but can't be trusted. Professor (M.A.1.T). Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi, Contact: drmkb1963@gmail.com

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Courtesy:-  M K Bhat and Koshur Samachar 2023, March