Surgical strikes 2.0 after-effect-  Will Kashmir normalize for India?

Avtar Nehru    

The near-warlike situation over Indian Air Force’s punitive surgical strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror camps in Pakistan and PoK carried out in the predawn hours of February 26, which was followed by a foiled Pakistani retaliatory rejoinder a day after, will certainly have an after-effect on the situation in Kashmir and also bilateral relations between India and Pakistan.

According to officials, the aerial strikes by India were carried out to preempt more terror/ suicide bombing attacks in the country after the JeM, which owned up the deadliest Pulwama suicide bombing that martyred 41 CRPF personnel on February 14 at Lethpora, Awantipora, while their convoy of 78 buses was on its way to Srinagar on the national highway. JeM, which has carried sensational terror attacks, including those on Parliament, Pathankot airbase and J&K Assembly in the past, is one of the most indoctrinated and highly trained terror outfit patronized and used by the Pakistan army and its intelligence agency ISI against India. That’s a reason, why it takes over when others don’t deliver. Pakistan, which has several terror factories in its havens created over a period of time, has been manipulating these outfits to keep its proxy war going with India.

The fact remains that the political economy of Islamic militancy is so entrenched and huge in Pakistan that it has become a monolith and even the institutions of ‘independent’ judiciary and the powerful army can’t go against it. In such a situation, most of the electoral politics is dictated by this phenomenon in that country. Today’s Pakistan is markedly different from Allama Iqbal’s or Jinnah’s Pakistan. Both of them arguably wanted to safeguard and promote Muslim political and cultural space, which they thought will not be available in a majoritarian Hindu India.

Today’s Paksitan is a breeding ground of Islamic militancy in the South Asian region and beyond. The radical shift of Pakistani society towards religious fundamentalism began with Afghanistan warlords fighting erstwhile USSR in the late 1970s and Pakistan, as a state sympathizing with them and eventually getting involved with it body, mind and soul under a grand CIA plan that brought all major resistance insurgent mujahedeen groups together and made Pakistan a base of a ‘holy jihad’ to throw Soviet Union out of Afghanistan. So while this arrangement brought bountiful of aid and freebies to Pakistan establishment and handlers (Pak army), on the darker side, it also brought the religious orthodoxy, extremism and gun culture freely into the country. In effect, Pakistan became a de facto lawless nation and all institutions beginning from being initially sympathetic became partners in this degradation of Pakistan state.

Once the Afghanistan theatre came to an end to their likening, the Pakistan generals saw an opportunity in Kashmir and employed the apparatus and deployment in Kashmir in late 1980. And now 30 years on, the effort continues. Unlike Afghan tribe clans, who were culturally warriors and orthodox religious people with low literacy rate, Kashmiri Muslims presented a contrast of composite culture and reasonable education culture. Those among them who joined militancy could not show comparable grit and results, so Pakistani managers all along sent its non-Kashmiri terrorists to take charge and boost the morale of local recruits, train them. There were periods of lull and normalcy, however, the disengagement with this indoctrinate, incite and induct model of religious militancy never took place. Armies of over ground workers keep the cause and work alive. In the last few years, especially after intoxicating content with the rise of IS became available on Internet and mobile phone penetration increased phenomenally in this region, the Pakistani persistency and effort got a fillip after some local youth from south Kashmir, who joined militancy, tried to make militancy, a model for aspiration through social media and militant crime post 2015.

In all this transformation, groups like JeM have preyed upon the gullible youth and made local recruitment. Suicide attack, which was not a part of militancy in Kashmir until now and registered a first with Pulwama attack, is indeed a dangerous development and manifestation of the last few years’ campaign. So, the Government of India is within its rights and on a correct path in seeking destruction of a terror outfit that poses serious threat to people and installations. And, in fitness of things, it bombarded some infrastructure and key people of this outfit across the border. Hopefully, this was a statement of a new intent about hot pursuit. Some terror sympathizers have already started making a case that it is Israeli lobby selling its technology, equipment and method to India. But not withstanding this distraction, from here where do we go?

The outfit wasn’t completely destroyed and even if the facility was indeed, the devil is still safe in mind and thought. Pakistani government, as said above, is itself one of its masters as well as a slave, wouldn’t dare to move against it even if Indian dossier and evidence clearly offers them a ground. In case of 261

11,         it has happened before. This time, however, one thing that has changed is that India has asserted militarily, which has made the world to take notice.

So, to make over its sullen image in the world, Pakistan will take some cosmetic steps. It will also embolden sane voices of Pakistan, especially among the Pakistani diaspora, which is at the receiving end this taint globally. The bottom-line of this calculus for the Pakistan establishment will be ‘secessionist’ progress made in Kashmir; while for radical Islamists it will be always how to spread violence beyond Kashmir into rest of India.

First, there is no doubt the gains made by Pakistan in Kashmir have suffered a jolt with the recent posturing by India. The first wave of militancy it introduced into Kashmir came with the promise that ‘you start, we’re coming behind you’. The militant groups that were armed, trained and sent to Kashmir were made to think that it is a matter of weeks and we win. That didn’t happen. Next, in order to sustain, the movement, Pakistan agencies made structural investments by funding a plethora of activities including stone pelting, media outreach and foreign trips. This is now no longer a secret. So, Pakistanis will find this road bumpy onwards.

There has been a long held notion that Saudi Arabia and other petroleum rich Sunni Muslim Gulf countries are sources of Islamic terror emancipating from Pakistan to Afghanistan and Kashmir. With Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi murder episode in Turkey, Saudi royal family have come in direct line of firing world over and there is a conscious effort from the family and government to correct its perception. As a result, it has moved to set up de-radicalizing centres, open economy and a liberalization spree. In that sense, Saudi society is getting some education against perpetuating terror financing.

That Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj was made a guest of honour at the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) even at the cost of Pakistan boycott, also makes a huge point that India matters a lot to Islamic world. And, importantly it helps India’s view of being a terror victim.

Another important development in this context is American negotiations with Taliban in Afghanistan. And there are ample hints that an agreement will be reached and Taliban may get a role in political/peace process. If that happens, the terror necessity of Pakistan on its western border will significantly cease. Many of Taliban fighters and leaders have already been eliminated by American assault and drones and also the matrix of Afghan fight has completely changed from the past both in context and form.

Therefore, choices for Pakistan have somewhat narrowed down. Its support among comity of nations is coming down and India’s stature as a economic power is going up. However, even if Pakistanis themselves wanted and were sincere in reversing their choice of using terror as an instrument against India, it would be a herculean task to dismantle the monolith of radicalism from its polity and society. In doing so, they would need effort, time and determination. Conversely, they wouldn’t like to frit away gains and investments of last 40 years and reinvent themselves to keep the fagade of ‘freedom movement’ in Kashmir intact. For this, they will continue to use covert operations, intoxicating Internet content and local conduits to keep the pot boiling. There is also a danger of Pakistan engaging its freed assets from Afghanistan into Kashmir to increase the level of violence in Kashmir and beyond

A third scenario is bound to emerge in Kashmir itself. The India-Pakistan skirmish did frighten people in Kashmir as they saw their land as the real battle field in the eventuality of war. But at the same time, the perceptional and psychological war that Pakistan sought by trying to even up by retaliatory strike, will also play in their minds and as such love for Pakistan in a section of people will not ebb down in the short term. In the medium term, however, if they are convinced about Indian claim or Pakistani establishment seeks to close the road of terror, then the ground situation may slowly limp back to pre 1990s era and though sizeable pockets of Pakistani supporters will continue exist but the state will largely return to normalcy. However, if the combination of radical groups, terror outfits and Pakistani agencies continue to work as one, the present situation of violence, protests and disquiet will not change as much as we would like to.

In this overall analysis the choice that India has and will have to make remains a concerted effort to deal with terror, radicalization while at the same time defang extremist Islamic narrative of Pakistan. There is a case of demonstrating and nurturing values of inclusiveness within the country and also supporting people even from Pakistan who are fighting this menace. Internet and social media has become choice of weapon for Islamists; it is also time to counter it creatively with a content balances the propaganda. Creating fear in the minds of terrorists is equally important to deter them and also raise entry barriers.

Ultimately, it comes to a comprehensive doctrine which is needed to instituted to deal with situation for the long term results and end of this looming crisis.

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Courtesy: March 2019, Koshur Samachar