Can India Trust the US?

Sanjeev Munshi

(Since independence, India's relations with the US have been hyphenated with US Pakistan policy. Pakistan has been part of US military alliances (CETO & SENTO) since 1954-55 while as India, an part of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), was perceived to be closer to the Soviet camp, if not a part of it. Relations turned frosty during the 1971-72 Bangladesh crisis and the personal dislike President Nixon had for Mrs. Gandhi is a matter of public record. US did not take kindly to India becoming a member of the nuclear club in 1974 and used sanctions of various types to punish' India for this affront )

Today we are living in what is termed as a unipolar world with USA as the sole Global Superpower, straddling the globe like a club carrying Neanderthal The 'neo-liberal world order is by and large, governed by the whims and fancies (read choices) of the US policies and its perceived interests. It was not so always in the 1945-1990 era, we lived in a bipolar world with US and USSR as the two dominant powers, each with a group of follower countries The situation was somewhat like Orwellian scenario (1984) with three fictional superstates- Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, perpetually at war with one another in varying permutations The Soviet Block perpetually used to be at loggerheads with the so-called Western Democratic block led by the US (and allies like Western European countries. Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan etc) till the dramatic collapse of USSR in 1989- 91. Since then, the US and its allies have ruled the roost, almost unhindered.

Historical Background:

The 1815-1914 period is often called Britain's Imperial Century. The British Empire colonised countries across the globe between 1740 and 1940 with the popular term Britannia rules the waves! Twentieth century saw the decline of most of the colonial powers and their ultimate demise. The beginning of the end can be attributed to the outbreak of the World War I (1914-1918) that pitted the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Ottoman Empire of Turkey) against the Allies (Britain, France, Tsarist Russia, Italy. Japan and, after 1917, the USA) Consequences of the war led not only to the weakening of Germany but also, to break up of the Ottoman Sultanate that straddled across Middle East Egypt and Europe (Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia etc) Middle East got new countries like Kingdom of Jordan (1921), Saudi Arabia (1932). The Tsarist Russian empire too faced a major metamorphosis in the form of Bolshevik Revolution (1917-1923) that ultimately led to the formation of the USSR (Soviet Russia):

World War II (1939-1945) was a similar calamitous act of war between the Axis Powers (Germany, Italy, and Japan, plus a few smaller European countries) and the Allied Powers [Britain and France, later joined by USSR and USA (1941)] that saw 70-85 million casualties across Europe, Africa, and Asia. Since Britain was a major colonial power, WW2 saw the involvement of all its colonies- from New Zealand & Australia to India, Middle East, Egypt, South Africa, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan etc. Aftermath (1945-1960) of the WW2 saw not only the subjugation of Germany (including its bifurcation) and Japan but also to decolonization in Asia and Africa (over 36 countries achieved freedom, including India). It also saw the emergence of the Soviet Block in Eastern Europe (East Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Albania, Romania, Yugoslavia (Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia etc), Czechoslovakia) .

US Hegemony

Starting out as a colony of the British, USA declared independence in 1776; they fought a prolonged war (1775-1783), with help of the French and the Spanish Kingdoms, to throw the British out! US enjoys several major advantages that helped it grow into a major economic and industrial power over the last two centuries It has the advantage of geographic isolation with Atlantic Ocean separating it from Europe and Africa in the East and the Pacific separating it from Asia and Oceania towards West USA, being a relatively young country (discovered in 1492 CE, just 531 years back!) hence does not carry any baggage of history of old animosities, old wars, colonisation, and exploitation like many countries do in Asia and Africa Before September 2001, US had never seen any bombs falling on its land (barring the Japanese airstrike on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii in 1941) American constitution framers had chosen isolation by design-they wanted USA to stay clean of messy geopolitics. The powers to declare war on a country rest with the American Senate, not with the President of America. The US Presidents have had to resort to deceit and subterfuge to force the Senate into sanctioning joining WWI in 1917(a stage- managed submarine attack on American ship carrying women and children from Europe) Likewise, US forces were unofficially helping Britain fight Germany till Pearl Harbor happened in December 1941.

End of WW2 saw Britain reduced to a shadow of its former glory - it was a ruin financially, to add to its misery, Britain lost control over its colonies. A resurgent USA took over the mantle of Global leadership of the Free World" as it sent its forces to control Berlin, post WW2 The USSR, an ally till 1945, became a contender for hegemony and the two indulged in serious undermining of each other's interests, worldwide. The two superpowers, armed with nuclear bombs, found each other in opposite camps in China, Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Latin America, Asia. and Europe. US created military alliances like NATO (1949) in Europe. CENTO (1955) involving Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and SEATO (1954) in Southeast Asia, involving the Philippines, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, and Pakistan. Objective was to limit the Soviet communist influence from spreading. The two superpowers were constantly sparring for influence in different sectors across the globe. Their respective spy agencies (CIA for US and KGB for USSR) had their dirty tricks departments which used every trick in the book to harm the interests of the enemy! In fact, certain declassified documents revealed that the CIA had a mole right in the Cabinet of Mrs. Indira Gandhi, PM of India. CIA is also said to be behind the demise of USSR in 1991 that led to not just the collapse of communist philosophy but also, to the creation of 14 independent republics (besides Russia)in the Baltics and Central Asia region, including Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia Lithuania, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. Thus, the demise of USSR can be considered as an indirect major strategic victory for the USA, giving it absolute hegemony over world affairs.

The Chinese Saga

China, for long the world's most populous country, turned Communist People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 following victory of Chairman Mao's army over Gen Chiang Kai- shek's forces of the Nationalist Party Kuomintang (KMT). Gen Chiang, with full US support, fled to Taiwan (Formosa) to establish a US recognized Republic of China. For over two decades, (1949-1972) communist China remained hidden behind what was termed as the bamboo curtain. The US continued to be wary of the communist China but did not wish to have Chinese in the Soviet corner, for strategic reasons. It was the charismatic Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger who broke the diplomatic ice following long and secret negotiations that resulted in a state visit to the PRC by the then US President, Richard Nixon in February 1972 Nixon's arrival in Beijing ended 25 years of no communication or diplomatic ties between the two countries and was the key step in normalising relations. between the US and the PRC Nixon visited the PRC to gain more leverage over relations with the Soviet Union The normalisation of ties was formalised in 1979 with establishment of full diplomatic ties.

Chinese economy started looking north following opening in 1979 under Deng Xiaoping Over the years, US helped China develop into a manufacturing hub and its major commercial partner by inviting it to the WTO US universities and research organisations opened for Chinese students in a big way, offering scholarships and training facilities In 2023, American universities admitted over 2:51. Chinese students in various: programs. As the Chinese economy grew stronger, US started perceiving it as a threat to its monopoly of hegemony. The current anti- China stance of the US reflects a growing unease in the US policy think tanks about the increasing clout China has in various Asian and African countries. Suddenly, Taiwan has become a flashpoint. The US has put together QUAD, an alliance of Japan, Australia. India and US for safety and security of the Indo- Pacific region. The objective is to keep an eye on China's expansionist designs and to ward off any threats that it can pose particularly for Japan and Australia By design, US is propping up India as a defence partner so that India can serve as a bulwark against Chinese designs. US is suddenly not only acknowledging the McMahon Line as the internationally accepted border between India and China but indirectly helping India by providing satellite images of Chinese activities in India's North-Northeast.

Since independence, India's relations with the US have been hyphenated with US Pakistan policy Pakistan has been part of US military alliances (CETO & SENTO) since 1954- 55 while as India, as part of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), was perceived to be closer to the Soviet camp, if not a part of it. Relations turned frosty during the 1971-72 Bangladesh crisis and the personal dislike President Nixon had for Mrs Gandhi is a matter of public record US did not take kindly to India. becoming a member of the nuclear club in 1974 and used sanctions of various types to punish India for this affront.

India in 2023

India today stands on the cusp of a massive thrust forward -our economy is one of the better growing ones globally, the Covid and Ukraine war disruptions notwithstanding. Having claimed the #5 spot, our economy is just one trillion USD short of the Japanese and German economies Median age of Indians is 28, favourable against Japan & Germany Today, India is not just presiding over the G-20 summits but also a part of the powerful G7 club. India's indigenous defence production crossed Rs 1L Crore in 2022-23 India already is world's 3 biggest defence spending power Our professionally trained army has seen battle in some of the toughest battlefields! Real powers are not those who are rich or spend more on purchasing arms- Saudi Arabia is rich, but they can't refuel their own aircrafts in fight against Yemen India manufactures 4 generation aeroplanes, can build submarines, warships, missiles, aircraft carriers, its own ammunition etc Our exploits in Space Technology, including launch of multiple satellites, probes to Moon and Mars speak of India's all round development!

Influence being exerted internationally by India is far more than its GDP strength allows, more than Japan and Germany Indian diaspora is emerging as a fountainhead of respect and strength globally Over the last 3- 4 years. India has pursued an independent, unapologetic, unabashed and aggressive, India-first foreign policy, this was exhibited by our refusal to allow Pfizer vaccines free or exclusive access to Indian markets and, more recently, to massive buying of Russian Oil, much to the annoyance of the West: that India is earning massive profits by exporting the same oil(after value added refining) to the West only adds injury to the insult! India today is at the cusp of de-dollarization, flaunting its G7 & G20 muscles, promoting trade with 18 countries including Iran and Russia in rupees instead of dollars.

That leads us to an interesting question: where is India in the Global Pecking Order? Global economy size currently is about USD 104-105 Trillion, 40% contributions come from the 2 top economies US about 23% and China 17% India, at USD 4 Trillion just contributes < 4% of the global economy So, India is not a major economic power - at least not yet, compared to the big two. No doubt it has transformed itself from an under-developed economy to developing economy and now, is considered a Rising Economy at #5 of the pecking order. Per capita GDP for the US is at $70,000 against $ 2000 of India and China's $12000. We still have a long, long way to go! In the neo-liberal world order we are currently living in, Economy at 1 (US) is declining while #2, China is rising. The WTO membership and US support benefitted China more than any other country, including the US, UK, and others. US now wants to stop China and is willing to go all out for that!

India has made its position and long term aims very clear. India wants a Multi Polar world, not a Unipolar world. Foreign Minister Jaishankar has indicated that India can't be a Poodle of the US like the UK We want our own camp- the Global South with India as leader of the 140 countries that constitute the global south India has already become a giving country, saving the entire African continent from the scourge of AIDS by supplying generic medicines at costs that are a fraction of what the pharma giants of the developed world were charging During the Covid pandemic, India supplied 235 million doses of Covid vaccine to 98 countries, mostly free of cost, thus helping avert a major human catastrophe. In recent years, India has provided aid and credit facilities worth 70 billion USD to African countries besides helping neighbours in Southeast Asia Maldives, Sri Lanka Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal etc India is asserting itself to enter the UN Security Council as a veto wielding Permanent Member The objective is to protect itself and its interests. India has gone against the existing world order by purchasing oil from Russia- it has shown its flair for independent thinking and policy The system has a knack of punishing the violators-consider the plethora of US & UN reports criticising India for its Human Rights Records, poor Global Happiness Index. Freedom of Speech, Treatment of Minorities etc. The recent Hindenburg-George Soros nexus in the Adani episode exposed the decades. fault lines and revealed deep rooted conspiracies for destabilising India despite being a democracy.

Currently, the US Admin is going all out to molly-coddle Indian leadership rather roll out the red carpet. PM Modi has been invited for a State Visit to the US (June 21-24) US has also overlooked India's business dealings with Russia, including the purchase of S-400 defence systems and Oil over the last couple of years. The reason is not difficult to fathom in its quest for cutting China to size, US wants India in its corner As per US Think tanks, hot spots for possible military clashes with China are: Ladakh or Arunachal in India and Taiwan The South China sea can also heat up as China flexes its military and economic muscles

Why India Needs to Be Cautious

US has been an unreliable ally. Nehru realised this in the 1962-63 Indo Chinese war crisis when his requests for military equipment were not entertained by his 'friend' JFK.

US has mostly preferred to side with tinpot dictators rather than genuine democracies From Shah of Iran to the Generals who ruled Pakistan for almost four decades, to the despot monarchies of the Gulf and Middle East, US has cared more for its influence rather than the sacred principles of democracy - something they talk about a lot but do not 'walk the talk themselves.

The shenanigans of CIA in Latin American countries, Chile, Dominican Republic, the Operation Condor that wrought havoc in these countries, particularly between 1968- 1989 all have a tale to tell. The history of American involvement in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, and other countries of Indochina region is full of horror stories that the world remembers even after.

The bombing of Iraq because of the Bogey of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) turned out to be more of a pretence for controlling oil wells rather fighting for democracy, post Saddam Hussain. America ditched its allies in Vietnam in 1973, it ditched its allies in Afghanistan in 2021.

Today, the US Think tanks and security apparatus perceive China as its enemy that needs to be stopped and cut to size. After vanquishing USSR and weakening Russia (thru the Ukraine war) US now has its eyes set on China The Chinese too are playing the game very smartly-China wants to continue being termed a Developing Economy because it does not want to be compelled to join world donor club' or Paris club by default. It wants to play a role in managing economies of various countries but at its own terms, like in Sri Lanka or in Africa It wants to continue receiving concessions available to developing countries (environmental issues etc), free riding on the system. It wants to continue in that mode till it not only overtakes the US but becomes a much bigger economy. It does not want to play a role in maintaining the global economic order but tweak it strategically to suit its long-term goals. India needs to learn from China's experience. If India continues to grow, it shall be perceived as a potential threat by the US at some point. And then, the Empire shall strike back!

(The author can be contacted at: sanjeromunshi@hotmail.com 9094188301

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Courtesy:- Sanjeev Munshi and June 2023, Koshur Samachar