Aarti Singh  

2007 Saw Most Operations But Only 25 Ultras Enrolled. Contrary to the common belief, militants killed by security forces and recruitment of local youth in militancy are not consistently and directly proportional, as per the Jammu and Kashmir security data of the last 10 years accessed exclusively by TOI.

In the last 10 years, the data shows that the highest number of counter-insurgency operations (205) were conducted in 2007 under the Ghulam Nabi Azad-led coalition government. Over 330 terrorists were killed and over 530 terrorists and over-ground workers were arrested. The terror attacks on civilians, security forces and others were also the highest in 2007. Since many tend to think that anti-terror operations are directly proportional to recruitment of local militants, one would assume that 2007 and 2008 would have provoked more youth to join militancy. However, as per the data, in 2007, just 25 youth took up arms.

Even in 2008 and 2009, when the Valley erupted with organised stone-pelting and street violence, first during Amarnath land crisis and then over the death of two Shopian women due to drowning, the recruitment was abysmally low. Only six and eight youth joined militancy in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In 2010, when over 100 youth were killed in clashes with security forces and 163 militants were killed in combat operations, only 24 youth joined militancy.

The recruitment shows some correlation with counterinsurgency operations (CIOs) or militants killed, only beginning 2014 when the Narendra Modi government came to power. “Though there is a correlation from 2014, it does not explain why recruitment did not rise when both counter-insurgency operations and the number of militants killed were highest in 2007. The problem is that people believe correlation and causation are the same. In Kashmir, statistics do not even show consistent correlation, let alone tell you anything about the causation,” said a data analyst of the CID.

In the last five years, there has been a gradual increase in the number of counter-insurgency operations but the numbers still do not exceed the operations conducted in 2007 or 2008. “So I am not sure why politicians keep saying that India has adopted a muscular approach in Kashmir in the last four years. Our security policy has been consistent,” an Army officer said. A police officer involved in combat operations said that if at all there was a change, it surely has been to minimise collateral damage.

Aarti.Singh@timesgroup.com

Courtesy: Hindustan Times: 14th Nov, 2018