Kashmiri divorce- BJP and PDP part ways with eye on 2019 but state can’t afford leadership vacuum

In a major political development, BJP has decided to end its alliance with PDP in Jammu & Kashmir, bringing the curtains down on the Mehbooba Mufti government. The alliance, which lasted for three years, was marked by contradictions right from the beginning. Nonetheless, the coming together of parties seen as hardline Hindu nationalist and soft on separatists, respectively, was touted as both a practical recognition of ground realities and a bid to provide stable government after assembly polls threw up a fractured mandate. But that optimism faded fast after Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s death, and polarisation only deepened.

While BJP favoured a muscular security approach towards militancy and shunned the separatists, PDP wanted a different political approach but was constrained by compulsions of the alliance. Kashmir Valley drifted further from Jammu. Fissures really widened with militant Burhan Wani’s funeral, which was followed by a period of daily protests, crippling normalcy in Kashmir. Things took a further turn for the worse after the Kathua gang rape and murder of a Muslim girl earlier this year where some state BJP leaders were seen to be supporting the accused. But the last straw was disagreement over continuing the Ramzan ceasefire. This was Mufti’s peace initiative but the Centre decided to end it citing deteriorating law and order, especially after journalist Shujaat Bukhari’s assassination in Srinagar.

With Mufti now handing in her resignation and no other contenders for government formation, governor’s rule is inevitable in the state. While this may help step up security operations, the nature of militancy has changed in the last few years with Kashmiri nationalism being replaced by a growing Islamist identity. Plus, there are no signs that Pakistan is willing to draw down its support from terrorism in Kashmir.

Politically, it’s clear that BJP is looking at the 2019 Lok Sabha polls where it would like to contest on a nationalist, pro-Hindu plank. The alliance with PDP simply didn’t gel with this. It could tell voters that it tried its best in J&K but needed a bigger mandate to deliver results. And PDP could try to blame all the government failures on its former ally. It’s possible that J&K assembly polls will be held along with general elections. But a prolonged period of governor’s rule would be a bad call as the state desperately needs a functioning government.

This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.

Courtesy: TOI Editorials: June 20, 2018